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5月31日 Changing ParadigmsChanging Paradigms...
Last Friday was a rough day for me. My department at work recieved a broadcast E-mail telling us to report to a mandatory meeting. Then we all heard that our office managers were attempting to contact all of the department employees who were out on vacation or home sick. They were being asked to join a conference call during this meeting. Whenever this sort of meeting is called it usually means some sort of bad news is about to be dropped on us.
What we found out was that our upper level management had decided to call a 'surplus'. The word surplus is their code word for laying people off. Now our department currently has 82 people. It once had over 200 but the economy and our shrinking market share has already taken a toll. Now they are going to cut 20 more people. I am number 15 on this list of cuts.
The way it works is they will do voluntary and involuntary seperations. This means that they will first offer compensation packages to those people who want to leave the company on a voluntary basis. These voluntary packages are generally the most attractive to people who are within reach of retirement already. Now close to a third of my office is currently retirement eligible. The only reason most of them haven't already left the company was our 401K was literally gutted under the inspired leadership of Joe Nachio. At this time former CEO Nachio is cooling his heels in a federal correctional facility.
The involuntary seperations are then carried out after the voluntary seperations have been determined. This is done on the basis of seniority. I have 14 years with the company. This is not enough time to make my job secure. Now if five or more people take the voluntary packages I'll be safe. I could also attempt to transfer out of this department into another department within the company. This would protect the time I already have with the company. The problem is the company is downsizing all over the board. There are not many openings to try to get into.
So now the clock ticks. I won't know if I have a job for about two weeks. I do know that there are people fighting to find a place to slot me; I know to much for them to let me go. I also know that logic often fails in the face of corporate financial thinking. So I plan for the worst and hope for the best. This might be harder on Laurie than it is on me. She feels somewhat powerless in the face of what is happening.
The fact of the matter is I don't think the current wave of job cuts will save the company much. It is my opinion that we are in a time of changing paradigms. We are seeing a revolution of sorts take place within the telecommunications industry. Job cuts will not be enough to insure survival.
I see two principle technological forces working against the traditional telephone companies; mobility and bandwidth. This is to say that the cellular telephone and other wireless devices are rapidly eclipsing the old landline phones. The advent of local number portability is only accelerating the popular transition to wireless phones.
The other challenge is bandwidth; the internet speed the physical carrier is able to support. Now we are seeing that the hypothetical bandwidths available for copper twisted-pair wiring are greater than what was thought ten years ago. The problem is the telephone companies are competing with DSL against a host of new technologies that all potentially offer greater bandwidth than what our copper-based facilities can offer.
I also think that most traditional telephone companies suffer from a lack of perception about what the internet is evolving into. More of our personal communications are being moved onto the web. The old switched telephone system is being replaced by technologies such as VOIP. I can personally remember a time when telephone companies were all scrambling to get into long distance services. They thought that long distance was going to be their financial salvation. Voice over IP has squashed those hopes. Now when you might pick up your phone to make a long distance call the odds are good that it is actually being routed through the internet.
Social Networking
So what am I doing in response to all this bad news? I am making a personal investment in where I think the future is going.
I have been watching the phenomenal growth of social networking technologies such as 'Facebook' and 'Twitter'. I am also seeing that video is taking up more and more bandwidth with such sites as 'Youtube' and 'Hulu'. We also have a generation of kids that are very familiar with online virtual world game technology. What if all of these things were to converge? What if the hardware to access these technologies became relatively inexpensive?
The answer is you would have 'Second Life'.
I have been doing an intense amount of research on 'Second Life' for awhile now. If it seems like I have an obsession with it you are absolutely correct. I am convinced this is where the future is. There was an initial frenzy by a lot of companies to set up operations when 'Second Life' first launched in 2003. Their hopes of this being the future of marketing faded as the realities of virtual worlds evolved.
This is a video about the companies that initially set up operations within 'Second Life'. Many of them eventually left.
I think that the Linden Labs, the company that owns 'Second Life', is now rapidly finding a position from which to evolve their virtual world into the ultimate social networking technology. Rather than the commercial model that many originally envisioned they are moving it to an integration of social networking and internet marketing.
LINDEN LAB LAUNCHES GOLD SOLUTION PROVIDER PROGRAM FOR SECOND LIFE
I reported on this blog awhile back about how IBM was working with Linden Labs of integrating 'Second Life' with other virtual world technologies.
The number of companies researching this is growing. There are actually a number of virtual worlds currently operating but 'Second Life' seems to be the widely accepted platform model.
Now if the efforts of IBM and Linden Labs and at least 200 other collaborating technology companies succeed we could see all of these virtual worlds meshed together.
Second Life generates 15 billion minutes in web voice calls The integration of Voice over IP technology into 'Second Life' continues to grow. The numbers here are approaching what can only be termed as phenomenal.
Second Life Colocates at Terremark NAP
It also looks to me like Linden Labs is working to provide the infrastructure to support expansion. I don't think they would be doing this if they didn't have information demonstrating the future need.
What this all means...
I am going to be doing an intense amount of research into this technology. It will probably be the only thing you see on this blog for awhile. It might seem a little chaotic at times. I am pulling in new information as fast as I can. Sometimes I might even be just dumping what I find here as I sort it out. Right now this is what I think I need to do as I face the future.
5月25日 Fear and Loathing in the Internet EraFear and Loathing in the Internet Era
I remember Memorial Day in my own way
Today I had every intention of catching up on this blog for all the days I've been missing. The problem is this morning I discovered that our router had apparently gone through some sort of catastrophic failure. It is my philosophy that if you have to replace something you should try to put in better than what you had previously. So I went to Best Buy and spent a lot of money to put in a better router and wireless network. Then I discover that my small ISP does not have tech support on the holiday! So here I sit at a coffee shop. When you are a "internet junkie" this sort of thing can be almost emotionally damaging.
I wanted to write something for Memorial Day. I was raised in a family of veterans. None of them ever talked much about what they did in the service. I didn't even know about the things my father did until after he died. There were a couple of fellows at his funeral that simply told me that he was very much a hero for some things he did. They briefly told me about their plane going down and how they all had to fight for their survival in the open sea. I knew he had a lot of injuries from his time in the Navy. He finally died in a motorcycle accident at the age of 53; one of his personal effects the coroner had was a paper thin set of dentures. My dad had an odd pride in these dentures. It not like he showed them off. They were Navy issue though. They were the result of his injuries in the service and he had them right up to the day of his death. The thing was he never talked about exactly how he got those dentures. He never talked about the steel pin in his shoulder. He never talked about the scars.
So here I sit, struggling with my internet problems. Then I stop to remember today is Memorial Day. I stop and think about my dad and it makes my technological woes seem insignificant. This is all nothing compared to what a few Navy patrol bomber crew had to survive through one cold day in the sea. How many of us stop to think of the sacrifices so many have made so that we can live with the freedom to say what we say and do what we do? I think my dad was one of those veterans. He never said much about it. I sometimes regret that I didn't ask him more about it.
5月17日 The Return of Online Gambling?The Return of Online Gambling?
H. R. 2267
I generally don't agree with Representative Barney Frank on much of anything. I do agree with him on this. I think the current ban on internet gambling is a mistake. I think the fears about this are unfounded.
News story on the legislation. The Evolution of TelecommunicationsThe Evolution of
Telecommunications
This last week Laurie and I personally saw the forces of change within the telephone industry. Our jobs are being changed and in ways that don't seem promising. The most prudent thing for us to do right now is adapt to these new circumstances. The other thing we need to do is make a plan for the future.
As much as I love learning about the past I've learned to watch the trends unfolding around me. Right now I am engaging in some speculative analysis of where I think the telecommunications industry is going. The two biggest things I see are the success of mobile communications and the expansion of broadband access.
I have been told by one industry source that a traditional phone line is disconnected and replaced by a cell phone every eight seconds. The old twisted-pair telephone service is rapidly vanishing. This change is resulting in rapidly shrinking market share for both RBOC's (Regional Bell Operating Corporations) and CLEC's (Competitive Local Exchange Carriers). What this translates to in literal terms is jobs lost to the local service providers.
The other area of growth is in the expansion of low cost broadband access. This is actually one of the ways the old telephone companies are attempting to fight their loss of lines. Those old twisted-pair copper facilities can be used to deliver a variety of DSL (Digital Subscriber Line) products. More companies are learning to provision the pairs as stand alone DSL products; even if the telephone number is ported out the broadband service can remain with the incumbent provider. The problem for the old telephone company is that in terms of bandwidth it is difficult for a 24 or 26 gauge copper wire to compete with coaxial cable of the cable television companies. It looks to me currently like this race will ultimately be won by the company that can provide the most cost effective, fastest, reliable broadband access across the widest market footprint.
There are also indications that some interesting technological convergences are starting to appear. The word 'convergence' was a buzzword ten years ago for things like television and home computing and telecommunications merging into some sort of combined entity. The problem was nobody really knew what final form this would take. Whatever form it would take would also dictate the infrastructure requirements of the emerging network. This sort of change is expensive for the company attempting to provision it. Most telecommunications companies were not willing to gamble on ripping up the old and rolling out the new on the basis guess work.
I think that convergences are taking place but not in the way most industry people expected. The combination of cost effective video cards, broadband access and a generation of people raised on computer games is about to merge. When you look at the success of 'World of Warcraft', 'Everquest' and 'Second Life' you can see potential models for the future. The persistent online metaverse and digital virtual worlds are rapidly maturing and drawing commercial attention.
As a lot of you know I have been particularly watching the online world 'Second Life' created by Linden Lab:
Linden Lab website
Second Life website
When 'Second Life' was launched in 2003 there were some people that thought this was going to be the platform for an entirely new way of business and marketing. Quite a few companies set up virtual front offices in order to attempt to take advantage of what seemed like a cutting edge development. The problem was that most of these companies didn't really understand this new place that they were attempting to do business in. They didn't see throngs of avatars flooding their virtual stores. They didn't have a clue about why most people actually used 'Second Life'. Quite a few of these companies would eventually close their operations within the virtual world.
Not all of them...
Architecture Working Group
This effort by Linden Labs, with the assistance of other technology companies, could fundamentally change how the world does business. I know that IBM is heavily working on this.
I was raised as an IBM brat. I learned early on that IBM corporation is not perfect but when they set out to do something they very often succeed. I also know they have resources to do this like no other company today. My own research indicates that real world companies are again contemplating returning to the 'Second Life' metaverse. They are just figuring out that with computers now easily supporting the technical requirements of virtual environments and increasingly pervasive broadband access a new set of markets could potentially be emerging.
I'll be writing about this more in the future. With everything that is happening within the telecommunications industry I am putting a bet on these emerging virtual world technologies. This could be the new frontier for telecommunications professionals. The 'Booming Prairie Chicken' is staking a claim within cyberspace...
5月16日 On the road again...On the road again...
Sioux Falls, South Dakota
It has been far too long. We are headed west on I-90 towards Deadwood. Currently we are sitting at the same Flying J truckstop we usually stop at in Sioux Falls. We came in here fully expecting that Laurie would have to smoke a cigarette outside. The State of South Dakota passed a indoor smoking ban a couple months ago. When we got into the restaurant we saw ashtrays on most of the tables. We then found out the ban doesn't actually go into effect until July.
What this really means is that Deadwood won't have felt the effects of this bit of legislation yet. The town might not be a lot different from the last time we were there. I am still somewhat worried about how it will ultimately effect business there. The news media in Minnesota has always failed to report on how the hospitality industry was damaged when the ban took place there.
I am planning to do a substantial blog update this weekend. It won't be about Deadwood. This last week saw a lot of new economic problems in the telecommunications industry. Some of it keeps coming closer and closer to Laurie and me. It is really an odd feeling to call an engineer on the phone one day and discover they have been removed from the company. It is time to look for options - just in case. 5月10日 Deadwood on my mindDeadwood on my mind...
We are within a week of our next trip to Deadwood. It has been far, far to long since our last stay there. It has been a tough few months at work. The combination of the recession and the rapidly changing world of telecommunications has definitely put some strain on us. We seriously need a break for a few days. 5月3日 The Digital YamatoThe Digital Yamato
 The Imperial Japanese Navy battleship 'Yamato'.
Laurie and I spend a lot of time on 'Second Life' these days. I don't consider it time wasted mainly because I think this sort of virtual reality technology will be increasingly prevalent. We work in an industry that is effected more and more every day as old ideas fail in the face of new ones. We are also raising a generation of kids that are very familiar with this sort of thing. I will not be shocked to see what we have long viewed as a gaming technology migrate into communications and productivity applications.
The thing is that I find some amazing things in 'Second Life'. Some of these are literal wonders of the virtual world. I am particularly fond of naval history. The evolution of maritime technology is the ultimate example of rigorous product testing. It is also a valuable set of historical lessons around how new technologies eclipse older established technologies. Yesterday I found one of these virtual world wonders that also provides a good example of historical technological evolution:
This is the SLURL for Yamato of Japan. It won't do you much good unless you have an account with 'Second Life'.
This is, without a doubt, one of the most amazing things I've stumbled upon in 'Second Life'. It is a very accurate on-scale digital reproduction of the Imperial Japanese Navy battleship 'Yamato'. Today it is still the largest battleship ever built and mounted the largest main battery weapons of any warship.
 One view of the digital Yamato.
 Another view of the ship.
 One more view.
This is really a highly detailed reproduction of the historical ship. You can literally walk the whole length of the ship and examine some parts in great detail. The observation floatplane on the catapult at the stern of the ship is an independent model as well. For those of you who know something about SL this monster consumed 11,600 prims! The house Laurie and I have in SL was about 140 prim! This thing is a literal history lesson in 3D.
The digital Yamato was apparently created by one Japanese fellow. I don't speak or read Japanese so I can't read most of the information he provided. There are several historical displays mounted nearby that apparently provide a more detailed history of the actual ship. The Japanese have a lot of problems with their history during the Second World War. They don't talk a lot about the atrocities committed by their military during the war. They do take a sort of pride in the Yamato though; it was the physical manifestation of what they were capable of in naval engineering.
 The Yamato during her fitting out.
It wasn't all that long ago that they made a movie about their legendary battleship. Believe it or not, I actually own a copy of the movie. There are English subtitles available but I have a feeling the interpretation is a bit dubious. Even with this the movie is interesting to watch. Sometimes it isn't easy to watch; they didn't flinch much when it came to the final battle of the Yamato.
I
 One of the movie posters.
The story of the Yamato is well know to naval historians. The ship and crew were sacrificed during the Battle of Okinawa. The battleship was sent from the home islands with just enough fuel to reach Okinawa. They were supposed to engage any enemy warships they encountered but ultimately the goal was to beach the ship at Okinawa to serve as a stationary battery. The United States Navy discovered the Yamato was coming almost as soon as it left port. The Navy sent out several hundred strike aircraft to destroy the battleship. The Imperial Japanese Navy did not provide any fighter cover for the Yamato and only a minimal surface escort. It would be essentially a fight between the old technology of the big gun battleship and the new technology of naval airpower.
A portion of the movie during the final battle.
The movie isn't perfect in historical accuracy but it is a lot better than most Hollywood productions. During the final battle there is one brief moment when you see the silhouette of an American P-47 'Thunderbolt' flying by. There were no P-47's involved in the attack. On the other hand one criticism of the movie is that they show the battleship swinging it's main battery guns to engage the air attack. Some people think nobody would try to shoot down an airplane with an 18.1 inch naval gun. The historical fact is the Japanese did try. They had special anti-aircraft shells for these gigantic guns. They were essentially monster flak shells. They also show a Japanese radar monitor being used and some people don't think the Japanese had radar. The fact is the Imperial Japanese Navy was experimenting with a aerial detection radar. We were substantially ahead of them in this technology but the Japanese did have it on the Yamato.
Still the final battle of the Yamato was a grim example of an old technology falling to a new technology. The battleship was not the dominant force on the high seas any more. One of the great ironies of the Yamato was that while they were building it the Imperial Japanese Navy's First Air Fleet was practicing not all that far off. The Japanese were some of the first to experiment with naval airpower. This same Japanese Air Fleet would go on to attack the American Pacific Fleet at Pearl Harbor. The Yamato was literally built in the shadow of the type of forces that would later destroy it.
But in 'Second Life' there is a memorial of sorts to the biggest battleship ever built. It just seems interesting to see this monument to the historical past in the midst of what might be our technological future.
 The digital Yamato.
5月2日 Tax Cut Rally 2009Tax Cut Rally
2009
 Lots of flags at the Tax Cut rally.
Today Laurie and I attended the 2009 Tax Cut Rally outside the Minnesota state capital building. I will be interested to see how it is reported on the television news and in the local newspapers. I didn't see any sign of a television camera or reporter. Now there were easily several thousand people gathered and I might simply have not seen the people from the media.
What I did see was that this year's rally was much better organised than last years. There were a lot more political groups present and more politicians working the crowd. The crowd was obviously worked up about the tax issue but very orderly and polite. I only saw one law enforcement officer the whole time we were there and he seemed more interested in what was being said at the podium than what was happening in the crowd. This seemed like such a contrast to the demonstrations that took place in Saint Paul during the Republican National Convention last year. These protesters didn't feel the need to engage in the destruction of property or civil disobediance.
This particular rally was not an outgrowth of the Tea Party Movement last month. The Minnesota Tax Cut Rallies predate those by at least a year. These people were around protesting our high taxes back during the Bush administration. Judging by what I saw today and what I saw in 2008 they have just gained in numbers though. There were a lot more people there today than last year.
The message during the rally was very clear; the present pattern of state and national fiscal irresponsibility needs to stop. This is not a Republican or Democratic issue. Both parties are equally to blame. The only problem is that our current administration seems to have gone completely insane in terms of spending. I wouldn't feel so scared of this path if they could just explain to me how we are going to eventually pay for the trillions in debt they are amassing? MippinMippin
The Booming Prairie Chicken is now live on Mippin!
Just a quick note for our fans from 'Second Life'; due to format problems with the direct feed of Windows Live to our SL profile page I have set up a new RSS feed. We will be using mobile phone website under the following URL:
You will be able to pull up a feed for the Windows Live site through my avatar's profile. You won't get the full content of the 'Booming Prairie Chicken'. The web interface for mobile phones is just not media friendly to that. In order to get the full goodness and virtue of the 'Booming Prairie Chicken' you will still need to access the site through your laptop or desktop computer. The real beauty of this new link is for all the people that meet us on SL. They will now be able to access our blog directly through the website section of our profile.
Mippin - coming to a mobile phone near you!
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